The key takeaways from the webinar were:
- The ETS could get a lot weaker. The number of emission permits would fall more slowly, and extra permits would be added. The EU plans to offset part of these with carbon removals, mostly outside Europe, but it is uncertain whether enough can be secured. Even if they are, around 1.68 billion extra tonnes of CO2 could still be emitted by 2050.
- The ETS cannot be isolated from the broader picture. The proposal would introduce CBAM three years later, so industry keeps its free permits for longer. A weaker ETS also shifts pressure onto national targets in sectors such as agriculture and land use.
- The window of opportunity is shrinking. The revision is planned to be completed in under nine months, and EU governments aim to agree their position by December. Councils can make the most of the time left by sharing their work and keeping each other informed about their governments’ positions.
- A fair transition is key. From 2028, ETS2 will put a carbon price on fuels for heating and road transport, and households are likely to carry the cost. How the revenues are used will be important for keeping public support.
- Think about what happens after 2040. The proposal says little about the period after 2040. A slower cap could keep permits available until close to the end of the century, either pushing more effort into the 2040s or increasing total emissions.
- Councils are stronger together. Joint work helps advice gain traction. A recent joint letter signed by 12 councils from eight countries reached the European Commission, MEPs and national policymakers.